Saturday, January 14, 2006

The Chronicle Survey

Ok, so let's talk about the Chronicle Survey.



"Frontrunner Nick Lampson" sounds real nice, don't it?


Let's cover some basic numbers on DeLay first:




As far as the makeup of the poll, that's even better news. It is skewed GOP, skewed white, grossly under-represents hispanics, and it is skewed towards high-income. Check the Chronicle for more on the poll's methodology and makeup, but the short version is that this poll may very well underestimate Lampson's already impressive lead.

Update: Or not. There is some debate on the sample demo...



But by far my favorite number is this: Only half of those polled who voted for DeLay is 2004 said they will do so again. Read that again if you have to.




BEFORE YOU GLOAT:

  1. Lamspon is polling no higher than his base (30%)
  2. This survey cames at a terrible time for DeLay. These are basement numbers for him.
  3. It's a long way to November. If DeLay walks on Earle's indictments, these numbers will soften. The race may not hinge on the outcome of the case, but they are inexorably linked.


UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS:

1. Will DeLay survive the primary? My instincts tell me yes. The three way split on the anti-DeLay vote will cripple anyone's chance to beat him. There is simply not enough time to organize support behind one candidate. Bet on Cambell to pick up a good number of those undecideds, but probably not enough. And we're already hearing about the beginings of a whisper smear campaign against Cambell among DeLay loyalists and the far right.

2. Will DeLay stay out of jail, off suicide watch, and on the ballot until November? Let's hope so.

3. Can Stockman keep the interest of moderate Republicans who would never dream of voting for Lampson? Keep your fingers crossed on this one too.

4. Will any of this hurt Lampson's ability to fundraise? Well, it always cuts both ways, doesn't it? Some people will jump on the bandwagon now that the wagon is polling in the lead, while others will figure Nick's got it in the bag and will give money elsewhere. Personally, I'm not worried. Lampson is running out in front, sitting on a million dollars, and has yet to spend a dime.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cue fat lady?

10:58 AM  
Anonymous Dist22Momma said...

The key will be to keep DeLay on the ticket. Some are already hinting that the August 25th deadline to replace DeLay on the GOP ballot may loom large in this race.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/hines/3586852.html

Could DeLay suddenly fall "ill" or get a hankering to move out os state? Or may plead to a felony to save his party?

11:22 AM  

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